Flyers Year in Review: Players by the Numbers - Ned Lukacevic

Ned Lukacevic was announced recently as joining the Coventry Blaze and the revolution that Chuck Weber is creating in the Midlands. In just 94 games, Ned would make his mark on Fife Ice Arena with his electrifying skill and scoring 43 goals in the process. With a disappointing season for the Flyers a change was naturally on the cards, and Lukacevic was the first of (probably) many to move on to pastures new. A total of 110 points in his 18 months will be a hard task for Todd Dutiaume and Danny Stewart to replace, but does a point a game really tell the whole picture?

In his 94 games, Ned would go pointless in a total of 29 matches - so if a player goes scoreless in a third of his games is he as good as his stats would suggest? Or is he merely the victim of a system? What we'll do here is present the numbers from his time with the Flyers, it will be up to you to decide which category this falls in to. Of the 29 games without a point Fife would hold a 5-19-1-4 record. This immediately suggests that the Flyers are successful when Lukacevic is playing well and scoring. Of the five matches that the Flyers won all were against Gardiner Conference opposition (2 against Edinburgh, 1 apiece over the other three). Remarkably there are is only one team in the EIHL that Lukacevic has never gone scoreless, Nottingham! His 7 points in 6 games in last season gave the Flyers an incredible 3-3-0-0 record against the EIHL big boys. This is the first time that Fife have come anywhere near to having a successful record over Corey Nielsen's team. 

Those of you that have listened to the first episode of the Murdoch and Frame Podcast will be aware that Ned's real success came against our Gardiner counterparts: 15 points in as many games against the Braehead Clan, 18 points in 16 games over Dundee, Hull yielded 20 points in 14 matches and finally Edinburgh were the leakiest with 30 points in 17 meetings (including a remarkable 24 assists). In total, this makes up a total of 83 points in 62 games - 1.33 points per game which means a rate of 0.84 when playing against the Erhardt teams. To put that in to perspective, a rate of 1.33 points per game over an entire season would put Ned ahead of Mike Forney (1.26) in league scoring, leaving only Matthieu Roy (1.49) as the player who would have scored at a greater rate.

Even purely limiting the analysis to the Erhardt teams as a bulk shields the full picture. In addition to 8 points in 7 games over Nottingham (2013-15), Ned also put up 11 points against Belfast in the league and cup. So really, only Coventry (1 goal in 4 games), Sheffield (2 goals in 6 games) and Cardiff (5 points in 7 games) have managed to successfully close down Lukacevic.   

Key to Lukacevic's totals during his time with the Flyers is points in consecutive games. On nine occasions Lukacevic has scored in 3 or more consecutive games. In fact the much lauded 'run' from the 2013-14 season where the Flyers won 13 of their final 17 games to reach the playoffs coincided with a 17 match point streak where Ned put up 10 goals and 19 assists for 29 points from 1/2/14-22/3/14. Equally, periods where Ned failed to put up points also coincided with poor form for the team as whole. Zero goals (3 assists) between 16/11/14 and 14/12/14 contributed, no doubt, to a torrid 7 match losing streak - which was the worst run the Flyers would endure when they lost 13 in a row from 31/01/2012 to 11/03/2012 in their inaugural EIHL season.

So, with 110 points in 94 games Ned Lukacevic has created a lot of memories, how he will manage in the Erhardt Conference remains to be seen, but at least he doesn't have to play against Coventry anymore!

To read Mark Parter's take on the last season click here.

To listen to the first episode of the Murdoch and Frame Podcast click here.

If you are interested in contributing to Murdoch's Hockey Blog, you can contact us at murdochhockeyblog@gmail.com


 

Murdoch and Frame Podcast - Episode 1

Here's the first episode of the Murdoch and Frame Podcast:

Kyle Haines' signing hadn't been announced, although you will note that he was top of Andrew's list for re-joining. If you would like to contribute to the Murdoch and Frame Podcast or Murdoch's Hockey Blog contact us at murdochhockeyblog@gmail.com

Flyers Year in Review: Fans Thoughts

Recently, Flyers fan Mark Parter (@fifeflyersfan on Twitter) shared with me his thoughts on the past season. Here is his opinion on the last 12 months.
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So, the sun has set on another Flyers season. While imports head back home, the fans have to now endure whatever delights Saturday night television throws at us.
I'm sure if you asked most Flyers fans, the 2014/15 season was a disappointment. Every season prior, Flyers had improved in some manner on the ice. This season, we took a step backwards. The one shining light in another wise poor season was our special teams. Ranked third on the power-play and second on the penalty kill.



In theory, signing much the same team as the prior season, with a couple of upgrades on paper, should have seen us hit the ground running. It was not to be however, as we started the way we always seem to start the season, poorly. Players turned up out of shape. Over the next few months, we went from highs of beating Belfast 6-1 in their own barn to losing 8-2 in our own barn to Braehead.



We had the same inconsistency issues in the 2013/14 season. That season however, we managed to find some of that much sought after consistency and put together a good series of wins.



This season, when we lost Chris Auger (who was our top scorer at the time) to injury, we should have sought out a replacement. We didn't. Guys double shifted and did an admirable job but that along with other injuries and suspensions, it meant that guys were playing a tremendous amount of minutes per game. And it took it's toll. Come the end of the season there was nothing left in the tank.



Off the ice, this season has seen an increase in the average attendance, 35% up on the previous season. I hope that this will mean an increase in the budget available to the coaching staff which should be used to bring in some new British faces. The imports Fife sign are usually of a good standard, however we rely on them to do too much.
What hurts us is the lack of depth. Our third line gets regular ice time in 5 on 5 situations but if it's a tight game we have a tendency to drop to 2 lines. Meaning even more ice time for our imports.



Todd in a recent interview stated that lessons will be learnt. What we don't know is what these are? Once the roster has been assembled, we may get our first glimpse of whether or not lessons have been learned. How many new faces will we see? Will there be any new Brits in the squad to provide much needed depth?



To have any hope of success next season, we need to move away from the flash and flair and move toward a more blue collar team.
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Huge thanks to Mark for his contribution, you can follow Mark on Twitter: @fifeflyersfan
Flyers fans what do you think? Is Mark correct in his assessment? If you would like to give your view on the past season or the crucial pre-season ahead please email me murdochhockeyblog@gmail.com

NHL: The Magic Number

Hockey is a game of numbers, in the NHL the numbers mean everything. The most famous number is 99, 'the Great One' Wayne Gretzky adorned these double digits through 21 NHL seasons, before retiring in 1999. His 1487 regular season games, 894 goals and 1963 assists totalling a remarkable 2857 points remains the benchmark for every player to ever grace the ice. There are so many incredible numbers in the NHL, but what is the magic number?

1917 marked the inaugural season of the NHL, in the 98 years that have followed the number of teams have chopped and changed. From 1917-1935, long before the 'Original 6' franchises, 9 additional teams (5 franchises) would compete in the league alongside New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins.

1967 would mark the expansion of the NHL and the introduction of 6 new franchises: California Seals and Minnesota North Stars (who, through a series of relocations and a merger would both eventually become the Dallas Stars), Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and St Louis Blues. 1967 would also mark the final year that the Toronto Maple Leafs would win the Stanley Cup. A shame for a fan base that the Hockey News ranked as number 1 in a 2014 poll. It would also mark the first season that the NHL would see a man by the name of William Scott 'Scotty' Bowman - we'll get to him later.

From 1970-1992 the league would grow from 12 to 22 franchises merging with the WHA for the beginning of the 1979 season. 51 year old Gordie Howe would adorn his famous number 9 jersey in the NHL for the final time that season, while an 18 year old Wayne Gretzky would embark on his first season. Both would play 80 games, Howe scored 15 goals finishing his career with 801, Gretzky would score 51 goals - well on his way to surpassing Howe and all that stood before him.

From 1992 through to the present day the team count would rise from 22 to the 30 that we all know now. This era is perhaps most marred by the 2004-05 lockout season that lead to the NHL missing an entire season for the first time in 88 years - even World War 2 didn't halt the league. All in, the lockout would last 10 months and 6 days. At this point a new set of numbers would be introduced to NHL fandom, namely the Salary Cap. Linked to league revenue, the cap was designed to protect teams from losing money (a reported $273million lost in 2002-03 season) and also to prevent players being overpaid. Remember that, the Cap was to prevent salaries getting out of hand - the compliance buyouts allowed after the partial lockout in 2012-13 (in which the 82 game season was reduced to 48) may say otherwise! Numbers like cap-hit and annual average (AAV) became so important. The idea that teams hire 'capologists' to balance the books and to be a General Manager you are better to be a lawyer or an accountant than ex-player or a scout. Ilya Kovalchuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen and Marian Hossa (among others) signed long term deals in order for the team to factor in a lower cap hit to allow them to remain competitive. Sidney Crosby born 7th August 1987 (8/7/87 in American date nomenclature) wears the 87 jersey with pride, guess what his cap hit is..... that's right $8.7million.

In recent years, the study of the game have ramped up. The introduction of analytics to game have revolutionized the way that the game is looked at. The numbers are being crunched to break down the performance of teams and individuals alike. The Corsi numbers are a measure of shots for and against a team while a player is on the ice, it is used as a guide for puck possession. A player with a high Corsi number will indicate that his team is possession more often than not when he is on the ice. The use of such data allows scouts, general managers and coaches to better use their roster. Numbers rule in the NHL, but some coaches will say that you can't measure heart, desire and stick-to-itiveness (whatever that is).

The thing is: goals and games; shots and salaries mean nothing, there is only 1 thing that matters in the NHL that is the Stanley Cup. First awarded in 1893, the Stanley Cup was originally rewarded to the winner of challenge matches. The annual award of the cup did not start until 1915, with multiple challenges occurring the 22 years that preceded this. Indeed in 1908, the cup was awarded on 5 occasions - each time the Montreal Wanderers were victorious. In the NHL era, the Montreal Canadiens lead the way having won the cup on 23 occasions - having also won in 1916, in the National Hockey Association - their 24 cups are far and away the most won. With 24 finals appearances and 11 cup wins the Detroit Red Wings rank second, although the Toronto Maple Leafs have won 13 in 21 final appearances. The Leafs have 1 season if they do not wish to match the 49 years that the Chicago Blackhawks went between cup wins (1961-2010). With 17 wins, Jean Beliveau has won the most cups individually - 10 as a player and 7 as an executive with the Montreal Canadiens. From 1973 to 1979, the Canadiens would win 5 cups, their coach was Scotty Bowman. Bowman would win a further 2 with the Pittsburgh Penguins, a further four with the Red Wings and two with the Blackhawks - totalling 13 cups over 40 years.

If the Stanley Cup is the Holy Grail and reigns supreme, then what is the NHL's magic number? 30 teams start the season with 82 games ahead of them. Of the 30 teams 16 teams will embark on a playoff run. 8 of 16 teams from the East and 8 of 14 in the West will vie for Lord Stanley's Cup. At the beginning of the playoffs all 16 teams look eagerly at the prospect of 4 best of 7 series. A slog that will only end when a team reaches 4 wins. After the 1st round the victorious team's reward is that they get to do it all again. All in, a team will need to win 16 times through 4 rounds in order to reach the euphoria of lifting the greatest trophy in sports. So, 30 times battle to be one of 16 to chase the cup through the playoffs. First to 16 wins will taste glory? What is the NHL's magic number? It's 16.