Saturday 30 August 2014

Flyers in Pre-season

Aalborg’s visit marks the 191st and 192nd games since Fife Flyers’ move in to the Elite League, so far the Flyers have an all-time record of 68-106-1-15 across all competitions (league, challenge cup, playoffs and pre-season). Flyers hold a 2-3-1 record in pre-season, with all three losses coming at the hands of the Dundee Stars. The Stars also hold the distinction of being the only team to tie with the Flyers in the Elite era with a 4-4 draw in the pre-season of 2011 after an inaugural 6-1 defeat the previous night. The other losses were suffered at the start of the 2013-14 season where Dundee bested Fife 4-3 in Kirkcaldy before winning 7-2 the following night on the other side of the Tay. Fortunes would fair differently as the season progressed though, Fife held a league and cup record of 5-5-0 with the Taysiders before getting the better of them in the playoffs with a resounding 8-4 two-legged victory, which only serves to show that nothing is decided after pre-season games.

Fife’s victories in pre-season came on the eve of the 2012-13 season with wins in the Autumn Cup competition, a 2-1 result against rivals Edinburgh Capitals was then followed by a 7-3 final victory over the Braehead Clan. Flyers were lead to victory by newly acquired Jason Pitton who scored 4 goals only to discover they were not counted toward EIHL season totals. The Autumn Cup still serves as the only silverware the Flyers have won in this era… so far. 

Tuesday 12 August 2014

Summer Dreams

For all sports fans the off-season is the purest of all times, there is no competition and is a time that supporters can let their dreams roam. The best laid plans can be made and it's going to be long time before any of these can dispelled entirely. During the summer months the football transfer market reigns supreme; Where will Arturo Vidal be playing come September? Who is next out of the door at Manchester United? How will Liverpool survive without Luis Suarez? It makes for great stories and even greater excitement, all over the UK fans of ages are using scrap bits of paper playing with the various formations that no matter how many times you try still add up to ten outfield players and a goalie (4-4-2, 4-3-3, 3-5-2... it's much of a muchness), but would football fans have it any other way? As described by Nooruddean Choudry (@beardedgenius) on the FourFourTwo Website it's a huge part of the journalist game and is under an immense amount of scrutiny. Ice hockey in the UK is no different and each year a seemingly better and better standard of player joins the Elite League and the EPL (in the case of the Telford Tigers).

What I wish to discuss is how do we know that our team has signed a better player? How do we know for certain that our team has improved by looking at a stat sheet? I must admit that I love stats as much as any hockey fan, Internet Hockey Database and Elite Prospects are two of my most visited websites but do these websites offer the full picture? No, of course they don't, it's impossible for them to do so. When your team signs these players there are multiple things that need to be considered:

What league did the new player play in last year?

If a guy played 9 games in the NHL 7 years ago that's impressive, but why isn't he still playing there? If the player played any length of time in the AHL, ECHL or CHL they will be more than capable of dealing with the pace of the game, bear in mind that in North America they do play on a smaller ice pad so that could take some time for the player adapt to the wider rink and their production could suffer based on previous years. If the player has played in Europe then you need to look at the league that they played at last year, the likelihood of signing anyone from Finland, Sweden, Russia or the Czech Republic is not high but if your team nab someone from these leagues then this would likley be an excellent signing. In all reality you would be likely to get players from Norway, Denmark, Italy and France (amongst others), the players from this league are familiar with the larger ice pad but may not be familiar with the typical North Amercan style of play that most teams in the UK play with the exception of Edinburgh. A perfect example of this would be Andy Contois, who joined the Fife Flyers last August with top billing, having put up 81 points in 77 games with Rødovre in Denmark over the previous two years, for whatever reason it didn't work. During his spell with Fife, Head Coach Todd Dutiaume was quoted multiple times on Flyers TV as saying, "you can't force chemistry" this was never aimed at anyone in particular but on paper a number of good forwards can ultimately produce no offence when thrust in to a system and team with zero or very little experience of either. The only clear indication of what type of player you are signing may be if they played in the UK last year. Coventry Blaze have taken on Rory Rawlyk from Dundee Stars, they know that they are getting a mobile defenseman who can eat minutes with an insatiable hunger and produce points dutifully from the blueline. Dundee in turn have added both Chris Blight, Brad Plumton and Shane Lust, all of whom have the profited from at least a years experience in the EIHL and will no doubt be huge for any success that Jeff Hutchins and Dundee have this year. Additionally, Hutchins has also signed Jade Galbraith the former Nottingham and Braehead forward, there is no doubt that a fully fit Galbraith will light up the Elite League this year and is the equivalent of a recruitment no-brainer.

How many points did they put up last year?

Once we have considered the league that the new player played in last year we then have to consider how many points they put up last year, and by extension the last 3-4 years. Playing at the AHL is an incredible level but is their production a result of a restricted role or minutes, or is this due to the fact that their style of play is not suited to a place on the scoring lines? Very few teams can afford you use a roster place for an import who is going to play an agitator/grinding role, the obvious example being Adam Keefe who brings a great leadership role at Belfast, also not every team has the luxury of a player like Colin Shields infiltrating the import-laden top scoring lines and an import standard netminder in Stephen Murphy. There are obviously other examples but in essence imports need to be the big producers in the UK league. A perfect example of this is Zach Fitzgerald who joined Braehead Clan this summer as an Assistant Coach/Player, Fitzgerald has played 447 games in the AHL, with 1741 PIMs along the way, it's of little doubt that he is player that can take care of himself and his team mates but it was interesting what he said when he joined:

“My offensively stats are pretty minimal because of my roles in my previous teams, but I feel I have something to offer in that department."

I admire him for saying this, while we like a ruck in our hockey games we prefer it to be with players that can play the game well, but with 49 points total in those 447 games and just 2 combined in the last two seasons, how truthful can this be? Equally, we can't write players off too soon, Dennis Rix newly added to the Edinburgh Capitals scored 33 points for Michigan Tech over 149 games but playing in the NCAA is a completely different hockey system, players get what I always call an "education in hockey" they get taught how to play a two-game and have a defense-first mentality, don't believe me? Just watch Mighty Ducks 3.Alternatively, look at a player like Riley Sheahan, in his final year with Notre Dame he put up 25 points in 37 games, last year he put up 24 points in 42 games with the Detroit Red Wings is the college game as difficult to play as the NHL? Of course not, it's just a completely different style of play to most leagues out there.

Have they played with any of your players before?

This may seem like an obvious one as a quick look at the rosters from previous seasons may suggest that players played together but don't automatically assume this. If you look at the stats from a previous year and see that one of your players was top 3 in scoring and a new signing was in the top 3 on the same team then it may be fair to assume that they at least have some experience playing together, such as the case with Bobby Chaumont and Chris Auger at Fort Wayne Comets in 2011/2012. This is highlighted by the signing today of Mike Kompon to the Belfast Giants, he has been earmarked by Steve Thornton as a first line centre, and on the strength of his numbers you can see why, he is also seen as the perfect foil for the Giants to get the best out of Kevin Saurette. This has lead a few Giants fans to fall in to a common mistake citing that they have played together, it is correct that in 2005-06 they were both with the Reading Royals of the ECHL where Kompon scored 56 points in 42 games, but given the Saurette only played 3 games and scored 1 goal, the success or failure of there time together can not be measured, indeed given that Kompon split time between Reading and the Manchester Monarchs of the AHL, without looking at gamesheets and then game tape there is no evidence whatsoever that they played any time together, apart from the occasional practice.

Are there any scouting reports online about the new players?

As we have seen above, stats only show part of the picture, if you can get any scouting reports on then it may be possible to paint a better picture of the player you are getting. If the player was drafted by an NHL team there should be a pretty detailed file on him somewhere, especially from his draft year, if he wasn't drafted it may be worth going to a forum for their last team. As a fraternity hockey fans are usually honest, while there may be reasons why they are happy/sad a player is leaving they will give you an honest assessment of the player in question. The new addition to the Nottingham Panthers, Nathan Robinson was acquired by the Red Wings in 2002 so by visiting redwingscentral.com it can be seen that the player is "A phenomenal skater who can accelerate in a heartbeat" but also is "Prone to giveaways" as he hasn't been part of the NHL system for some years these observations may be a tad out of date but they allow us to flesh out the picture we can have of the player. A website like Hockey's Future is an invaluable source of this information and has a report on a number of the EIHLs new recruits: Chris AugerRiley Emmerson and Colby Cohen.

I truly hope that this has not come across as a giant rant as that simply was not the intention, I had not just wanted to highlight that while the off-season is an incredible time of the year it is not necessarily the absolute and players that may not have impressed could have an incredible year, whereas players who can't be failures may just be so. With all teams in the EIHL strengthening we have the prospect of the best season yet and with the moves that every team has made we can all go in to September with huge optimism, just remember the season isn't won in August.